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With nine goals in his opening seven fixtures, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

While it is not his most impressive beginning to a season - he registered 11 strikes in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nonetheless positions him three strikes clear in the early running for this season's Premier League Golden Boot.

What makes this none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot makes it all the more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Of course, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the prize so quickly into the term.

First, the number of goals he has thus far netted - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of scoring opportunities he's creating.

Secondly, the modest opening his typical competitors for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by statistics boffins, but by Premier League history.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from regular situations, the Norway forward is obtaining considerably more quality chances to convert than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than every other footballer in the division, he would still have scored significantly more goals as all other players.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is shown by analyzing the total and standard of chances that players have had in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this season, a dozen more than any other player.

This is actually not particularly unusual for him - he had in fact attempted more non-spot-kick efforts at this juncture in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however unprecedented even for him is the caliber of opportunities he has had this term. His shots have had an chance quality metric of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that attackers have typically netted the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had easier chances to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 expected goals per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in the current season have been notably easier to convert from in a realigned Citizens squad than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so strongly is, as noted earlier, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last season he had registered ten strikes - a quartet more than every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who secured the scoring title with twenty-nine strikes, seven additional compared to the City forward.

This season, while Haaland has opened with incredible momentum, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the chances (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Actually this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the English top division last season, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether because of injuries - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's probable competitors in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's top-five leagues?

That race is far more competitive at this early stage because two world-class strikers have likewise begun in excellent condition, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The fact Haaland has scored so many times and has the top chance quality metric of the trio without yet taking any from the penalty spot positions him as the likely winner.

However, because Kane and Mbappe are some of the most excellent converters in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.