Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics

The mean number of per-day killings monthly in the country has dropped by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder numbers may not signal better national stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November versus roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded during these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that in November the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over 4x higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, security analysts cautioned that using homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for gauging the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of daily killings was similarly concerning because it might hide days when there were especially high numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders spikes of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst remarked.